A new sea level rise model in Marlborough is expected to identify sea level rise preliminary hazards. Photo: Stuff via LDR
Marlborough's council is working towards new modelling of sea level rise that will work in with previous climate change work.
The Marlborough District Council has engaged Niwa to undertake sea level rise modelling for the region - in what a council report described as being a scientifically robust "bottom line" which council and the wider community can "trust".
This would deliver a "true representation" of the reality of the situation now and help to understand what it could look like in the future.
The modelling would draw on the latest sea level rise projections, vertical land movement data and update national sea level rise guidance material that had been published in August 2022.
The initial work, described as "first pass", would use local data to develop an understanding of climate change and sea level rise risks for the region, which would identify preliminary hazards, and provide a "rapid" understanding of broader climate change and sea level rise risk, the report said.
This would identify where the council needed to spend more time gathering further information, including further location specific investigations, hazards, and additional modelling.
The Marlborough Sounds is expected to be "worst affected" by climate change because of its flood risk. Photo: Stuff via LDR
Council strategic planner Jamie Sigmund told councillors at an environment committee meeting last month the work had been spurred because of national guidance.
"It's really about what's happening, and it's the preparation and context setting scenario, trying to get a good handle on hazard and sea level rise assessments based on a good information base," Sigmund said.
"This has quite wide-ranging integration across council and provides a foundation from which we can move into a bit more of a strategic plan towards a council response."
It would integrate with policies, objectives and methods already developed under the Proposed Marlborough Environment Plan.
The plan said it was predicted average air temperature would increase by approximately 0.7 to 1.0 degree Celsius by 2040 and 0.7C to 3.0C by 2090.
Climate change in Marlborough would cause more extreme weather events and storm surges, more severe flooding and coastal erosion, and would increase the risk of fire, the plan said.
The Marlborough Sounds would be the area worst affected by flood risk, because settlement and infrastructure, like jetties and access tracks, tended to be near the water.
Marlborough mayor Nadine Taylor said at the environment committee meeting it was important to acknowledge the various streams of work happening and to acknowledge previous work by council to form that foundation. The modelling project was a specific action in the council's climate action plan, published in 2020.
That plan set short and long-term targets for the council to meet, so the public and councillors could track the region's performance. The action plan said the council's four main goals were to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, make Marlborough more resilient to climate change impacts, inform the community of actions and options for response, and show "clear leadership" on issues.
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