13 Dec 2023

COP28 climate talks on knife-edge after fossil fuel backlash

12:27 pm on 13 December 2023
Simon Watts

Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon

New Zealand's climate change minister says world climate negotiations are still on a knife edge.

He is vowing to deliver on action at home, but hasn't yet said what changes he will make.

The COP28 summit is now into overtime, with negotiators working through the night in Dubai to try to get a strong agreement on fossil fuels.

Climate Minister Simon Watts said New Zealand was fighting for a strong outcome alongside major countries including the United States.

Hosts the United Arab Emirates sparked controversy by putting forward a draft agreement that made reducing fossil fuels - the leading cause of deadly climate turbulence - entirely optional. New Zealand rejected the text along with many other countries.

" 'Could' is optional, this is not optional, it needs to be clear commitment by all countries across the globe," Watts said.

He said New Zealand has been "in a huddle" with US climate envoy John Kerry, Australia, Norway, UK, Japan and the summit presidency United Arab Emirates to push for stronger wording.

The text was being re-drafted Wednesday morning (New Zealand time) ready for presenting back to negotiators.

Watts said New Zealand was fighting to limit global heating to 1.5C and that meant phasing out fossil fuels.

His comments come after Energy Minister Shane Jones said New Zealand's policy response had been driven by 'climate hysteria'.

People walk past a COP28 logo ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Dubai on 28 November 28, 2023.

The COP28 summit is now into overtime. Photo: JEWEL SAMAD / AFP

Jones' comments in turn followed a 'Fossil of the day' award for New Zealand from environmental groups at COP28, for the government's reversal of a ban on looking for new oil and gas reserves. Jones was defending the rollback of that and other environmental protections in Parliament.

The International Energy Agency says even current fossil fuel reserves cannot be emptied if the planet is to stay inside 1.5C heating and avoid devastating consequences, and there is no need for opening any new reserves. It warns that companies pouring money into expanding production risk being left with stranded assets.

Watts said it was clear from working with other ministers at the summit that major nations were all on the same trajectory.

"It's actually on one level an economic opportunity because I tell you what, when you're in a huddle with the biggest countries in the world, those major countries are united."

On Tuesday, the Climate Change Commission released a report showing New Zealand is about 20 million tonnes short of meeting its goals to cut planet-heating emissions.

That's equal to taking more than a million cars off the road for five years.

The assessment covers the five years from 2026-2030 - a crucial period for meeting New Zealand's international climate target.

The commission urged stronger action on industrial emissions, renewable electricity, farming emissions, electrifying vehicles as well as setting absolute limits on climate pollution, which would limit how much polluters can rely on sucking in emissions with pine trees.

It also recommended strengthening the Emissions Trading Scheme by looking at cutting grants of free carbon credits to big exporters such as Rio Tinto, Methanex, NZ Steel, Ballance and others.

The commission suggested the original rationale for the free exporter subsidies - shielding exporters from unfair competition with rivals who don't face similar pollution costs in their own countries, with the goal of stopping industry moving overseas - might no longer stack up. It said the freebie system wasn't "fit for purpose".

Commission chairperson Rod Carr said the government faced choices about how it wanted to close that 20 million tonne gap.

But it needed to ensure that its policies added up.

For example, a company like NZ Steel would no longer qualify for a government grant to reduce its coal use, after the incoming government scrapped Labour's funding scheme for replacing coal boilers.

But the company is also an exporter so it is shielded from paying for most of its pollution under the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), because of the large exemption for exporters, meaning it will have little incentive to change unless the new government changes policies.

The Don't Subsidise Pollution coalition - a group of 11 climate and faith organisations - has used the commission's advice to push for scrapping $600 million in free credits to polluter-exporters, arguing the subsidies are costing more as global carbon prices rise. The group says the government campaigned on letting the ETS (Emission Trading Scheme) be the main tool for cutting emissions instead of subsidies, and needs to follow through.

The commission also urged the government to pursue pricing farm emissions and broaden the areas of agricultural activities covered.

Watts said it was clear at COP that more action was required and other countries were in the same situation.

"The reality is, particularly in the agriculture space, we are going to need more." However, he committed only to bringing in pricing by 2030, or 'sooner if possible', versus 2025 under Labour.

Watts paused a review of the ETS that was considering limiting the use of pine trees. The commission says unlimited pine will flood the market and blunt incentives to cut carbon dioxide production, without changes.

Watts did not say whether he would reopen the question, following the commission's advice.

"The key objective is to provide certainty to the market... we will continually look for opportunities to strengthen that market but it has to be done in a way that ensures the sector has certainty."

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